A review of one race a day where our Sectional Ratings would have been helpful in analysing a race.
09/11/20 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Novice Auction Stakes, Southwell 17:05
1st Charlie Fellowes, 2nd Professor Galant
Our Sectional Racecards are adjusted for weight carried, so Charlie Fellowes still being top rated by 8lbs despite carrying a double penalty signified a horse who thoroughly deserved to go off favourite. His Beverley victory rated very highly with us and since then he has gone on to win two novice events, including this one, by a combined 11 lengths. His first win at Wolverhampton rated 69 (once adjusted for the day’s racing weight) but with a max Sectional Upgrade over 6f of 20+ using a Finishing Speed Percentage. He should be competitive off a handicap mark of 89 if he continues over the winter.
Professor Galant was the next best on our ratings and duly came second despite pulling hard after her saddle slipped.
10/11/20 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Div I), Newcastle 15:20
1st King Of The South, 2nd Dr Rio, 3rd Corked
Arabian Romance’s debut back in July was a good race, but since then her form has taken a nosedive and didn’t feature in any other of our top 20 Sectional Ratings for this race. She was also weak in the market all day. Dr Rio and Corked were second and third in our list and filled those finishing positions in the race, not only with the highest Sectional Ratings but also with confirmed form over 1m2f+, whereas a lot of form on our list was over 1m.
The unexposed horse in the race was King Of The South, off since March and switched from David Lanigan to William Knight. His form as a young three year old was good, reaching a weight adjusted 66 at Chelmsford in his novice campaign. A likely horse to improve for a switch to handicaps and a step up in trip, he did just that and built on his potential to grab the victory.
12/11/20 – tote Placepot Your First Bet Nursery Handicap, Chelmsford 16:30
1st Ventura Vision, 2nd Dashing Dick, 3rd No Day Never
Considering how close the Sectional Ratings were for this race, there were a few high priced horses that were capable of causing an upset. The likes of This Ones For Fred, The Chain and Ventura Vision were all at 50/1+ in the market but had performed well in previous races that proved them capable of at least being placed in this company.
This Ones For Fred ran well over 1m on soft ground at Goodwood, but had since come last at Newbury and been sold to Peter Bowen, a yard not renowned for their 2yos. The drop to 7f wasn’t an obvious move either, The Chain went off at 80/1 for Jamie Osborne after disappointing on handicap debut at Lingfield last time, but a run at Kempton in June means he isn’t one to give up on and he shaped alright in sixth in this race.
The Mark Johnston trained Ventura Vision had two runs in the bank displaying ability good enough to go close here off 66, including at the course on his debut. He was stepped up to 7f here, which his stride data and breeding suggested wasn’t a bad move. Admittedly his two runs prior to this race required forgiving, but Sectional Ratings can point you in the direction of horses that are value when conditions are more in their favour, and at big odds too.
13/11/20 – Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap, Wolverhampton 16:45
1st Diamond Dougal, 2nd Final Frontier, 3rd Lezardrieux
The Sectional Ratings worked out well in this race. Glasvegas topped our ratings from a midfield handicap performance behind Khaloosy at Royal Ascot, but five poor runs and a stable switch later he wasn’t in the reckoning for this race. The next three in our Ratings filled the places at 12/1, 33/1 and 5/1. Lezardrieux topped our Ratings with recent form, but was drawn 10 in a tight race. Final Frontier was a big price at 33/1 on our Sectional Ratings considering there were a couple of placed efforts, including on the all weather, where he was entitled to run well if replicating.
Diamond Dougal’s 3rd at Kempton in August from a slow pace showed he was capable of running well this season on the all weather, and dropped into a class 4 race and his lowest handicap mark since 2018, he was destined to run well if in form. His SP of 12/1 represented good value.
14/11/20 – Betway Churchill Stakes, Lingfield 15:05
1st Dubai Warrior, 2nd Sinjaari
Possibly not a betting race for those that prefer to bet at bigger prices, but this year’s Churchill Stakes worked out perfectly on the ratings. Dubai Warrior had a great year on the all weather last year, and even ran very well at Sandown in July when running under a penalty. He’s a quality horse who will be hard to beat this winter and is worth keeping on side. Sinjaari completed the forecast and was a clear second on our ratings.