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Previews

6/2/21

A good day’s racing at Lingfield today. We are previewing three races, of which we have sent Sectional Racecards to our Subscribers. We will preview the majority of horses that feature in the top 10 Ratings for each race. If you want our Racecards sent directly to your email address every day, then browse our Subscription options HERE

12:35 – Betway Handicap (6f1y) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Kondratiev Wave – Has been disappointing since a good run in a strong 7f Glorious Goodwood handicap. He has really good All Weather form as recent as June, when getting collared on the line in a good 3yo handicap, again over 7f, which is clear on our Sectional Ratings. However, he was weak in the market when behind Count Otto last time and showed little enthusiasm throughout. It’s debatable today’s 6f is what he needs at this stage to be able to get near the front and put himself in with a chance and even with the reapplication of cheekpieces, you’d need to see more before making him a bet.

Owney Madden – Achieved good things as a 2yo, his win at York achieving a Sectional Rating of 83. He managed mid 70s at Chelmsford and York in July but he needs to bounce back from three below par efforts since, including two for new trainer, Jane Chapple-Hyam. He wears a first time hood today and is 11lb better off than last time when including the apprentice jockey’s claim, but like Kondratiev Wave, you’d need to see more before investing.

Diligent Lady – Put in two good performances at Windsor in the Summer, which repeated would put her competitive here. 6f on the All Weather is a different challenge today though and Michael Attwater’s invariably need their first run after a break.

Count Otto – Won a C&D handicap pretty cosily last time, making that six career victories. Despite good form over 7f, all six victories have been over 6f and at courses that have a downhill run, so another appearance at Lingfield is a positive. He’s a horse capable of running to a Sectional Rating of around 80 and looks a strong proposition, but the odds will reflect that.

One Hart – Comfortably won a claimer last time and is now trained by James Ferguson. The ease of the victory and strength of the form was reflected in a 4lb BHA rise to 78, but our Ratings tell us that’s within his compass. He’s dropped to 6f today, a distance he hasn’t performed over since he was a 2yo, but the way he strides and the way he puts his 7f races to bed, you’d think 6f will be fine. He can put up a good fight against Count Otto.

13:11 – Betway Kachy Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (6f1y) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Summerghand – A model of consistency in performances and our Ratings. When on song he hits just below the 100 mark and a repeat of that today would be enough to win. He comes here off the back of a 119 day break and has a 1212 record when returning from a break of two months or more. His Sectional Upgrades prove he has a turn of foot when needed, often required at Lingfield. The only question mark you would have is his form on the All Weather – his last run was on Boxing Day 2019 when he scored 89 when beating Documenting, who showed great form throughout that Winter. A rock solid option.

Aberama Gold – Undoubtedly an improved performer since the Autumn, hitting a 98 when running Dakota Gold close at Doncaster. Come out of that well on the All Weather since, performing best at today’s track. If he runs to his best he can hit mid 90’s, but even that may be just short of what’s needed.

Burmese Waltz – Officially rated the lowest in the field but her All Weather form deserves to put her right in the mix. She was up with Good Effort and Lampang at the front of the field last time in the race of the All Weather season so far, pitched three wide and sticking on well to hit a Sectional Rating of 97. Back in June she hit a Rating of 94 in beating Shimmering Dawn who was BHA rated 91 at the time but has risen to 98 since. There were a couple of below par efforts in between on turf, but on Ascot’s sand based straight track she ran Chiefofchiefs close. Her OR will mean she is going to be a nice each way price on the day and with a good draw and this being only her 11th start, she makes appeal.

Misty Grey – Likely to be favourite and he has come back to his peak 2yo form this Winter. He’s a little hard to assess for this race – his short head victory over Fizzy Feet over 6f would likely fall short of what’s required, where he looked as though 7f would suit. That impression was confirmed when hitting 96 from a slow pace in a strong race that saw next time out winners, Tranchee and Intuitive in behind. Away from Wolverhampton for the first time, there are just enough doubts to his suitably to Lingfield’s quick 6f to leave him at the prices.

Tinto – His best form has come at this course in the Golden Rose Stakes each of the last two years, hitting 90 and 96. Burmese Waltz from this year’s renewal looks a more progressive individual and as respectable as his form is, you do feel he will likely find a few too good in this field.


13:11 – Betway Winter Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (1m2f) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Bangkok – Winner of this race by four and a half lengths last year. The makeup of that field, which ended up being run from an even pace, will most likely be different to today’s test. Bangkok made the running at Wolverhampton last time and was caught on the line by Felix. There’s no doubt he will enjoy the return to Lingfield and will likely enjoy the presence of Red Verdon, a stayer who will probably make the running and ensure the race isn’t run at an absolute crawl. However, you can’t see it being an even test and you will need a horse who can use a turn of foot down the Lingfield straight. This horse definitely has that, unlucky not to beat Sangarius in December and it’s not too difficult to envisage a return to form today.

Forest Of Dean – Possibly the 3yo handicapper of 2019, winning at Goodwood and York and hitting some good Ratings in the process. There’s no doubting his ability and he made a decent return behind Felix and Bangkok last time, a length behind at the line. An argument will be made that race being his return from 478 days, he may be able to reverse the form today on the back of that. But these slowly run All Weather races are a unique test and we’re not convinced Forest Of Dean possesses the speed at the finish to beat Bangkok and Felix. The Ratings for the race at Wolverhampton were low – Gosden’s gelding hit 79, and you’d think a return to Lingfield will see the front two in the market improve their form as well.

Red Verdon – In our top 10 Ratings (up to 1m4f) courtesy of a fourth behind Telecaster in a race run in heavy ground. His last race was a slowly run 1m2f event at Wolverhampton where he was outpaced in a sprint finish by Make It Rain and Born To Be Alive, and was probably lucky not to finish further back thanks to a couple of fallers. You’d think Red Verdon’s best chance would be to go off in front at an even tempo in the hope there are suspect stayers, but that seems pretty doubtful and this test should be too much for him.

Felix – A curious career under Marco Botti, he’s yet to run in a race that resembles anything like an even tempo, scoring Sectional Upgrades between 10 and 22 on all five starts. That seems to have suited him down to the ground though as he’s won four of those races, including on return last time when beating Bangkok. Bearing in mind Bangkok’s usual preferred running style, it could be argued Felix was convenienced by having Balding’s horse in his sights in the straight, and it’s less likely that will happen today. No doubt a horse with a great turn of foot who was overpriced in his last race, it’s a little harder to make him a bet at 2/1 today.


Advised bet
13:11 – Burmese Waltz, each way at 12/1

Predictions
12:35 – 1st Count Otto, 2nd One Hart
13:11 – 1st Burmese Waltz, 2nd Summerghand, 3rd Aberama Gold
13:45 – 1st Bangkok, 2nd Felix

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