We are previewing two races today where our Ratings can be used with different methods to make betting selections.
5:45 Kempton – Unibet New Instant Roulette Handicap (6f) (Class 6) (3yo 0-60)
Selection – MEHMO @ 11/4
Mehmo’s run last time has him at the top of our Sectional Ratings by a considerable margin and he looks a good price to consider a win bet.
The 5f race he competed in at Lingfield last time looks strong form on its own – Onaledge beating the well backed Stay Smart, both looking like horses to stay on the right side of in the near future. Mehmo made nice headway into fourth, but the early pace wasn’t strong in the contest and the work he did in the final two furlongs was worthy of a large Sectional Upgrade, putting the run onto 67 on today’s Racecard once racing weight has been accounted for. Off a BHA mark of 55 today, he should prove this to be below his capabilities in the near future.
He is stepped up to 6f today which you would suggest is a plus. His second best performance in his career so far came over 7f when trained by Gay Kelleway. Now with Mick Appleby, the 6f on polytrack looks the best option at the moment. You’d also be optimistic he can replicate the same form today as last time, the Sectional Upgrade suggesting he had more to give and shouldn’t have had a hard race. Whilst there looks to have been money for Twilight Madness this morning, there are enough positives to be confident about Mehmo’s chances.
3:40 Chelmsford – tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP Handicap (1m) (Class 6) (3yo 0-55)
Selection – PUFFIN ISLAND @ 7/2
Whereas we looked at what Mehmo has already achieved in considering a bet today, here we can look what the Ratings tell us about potential improvement with a runner.
The field for this 1m handicap looks quite weak. Those at the top of our Sectional Ratings have run plenty of times without running a time that would put you off backing a horse you think may be more unexposed. In this instance, we like the look of Puffin Island’s profile.
This filly, trained by Henry Spiller, had a quiet novice campaign, but even then did achieve a decent number at Kempton over 7f in a strong event behind Just Beautiful and Daphne May, BHA rated 85 and 77 respectively. Her handicap debut back down to 6f was promising, running on nicely from rear when a little green early and the jockey not picking up the whip.
Today’s race is over a mile and there are a couple of pedigree pointers to think today’s race will suit. She is a half sister to Victory Chime and Charity Fun who appreciate 1m2f+, and also a half sister to Parknacilla who definitely appreciated a mile at Chelmsford when in form last Winter. Sire, Awtaad has also made a promising start with his runners on the All Weather.
It wouldn’t take an awful lot of improvement for Puffin Island to be involved at the finish and while she doesn’t feature in our top 10 Sectional Ratings for the race, it’s important to consider improvers in these early 3yo handicaps.