Categories
Previews

6/2/21

A good day’s racing at Lingfield today. We are previewing three races, of which we have sent Sectional Racecards to our Subscribers. We will preview the majority of horses that feature in the top 10 Ratings for each race. If you want our Racecards sent directly to your email address every day, then browse our Subscription options HERE

12:35 – Betway Handicap (6f1y) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Kondratiev Wave – Has been disappointing since a good run in a strong 7f Glorious Goodwood handicap. He has really good All Weather form as recent as June, when getting collared on the line in a good 3yo handicap, again over 7f, which is clear on our Sectional Ratings. However, he was weak in the market when behind Count Otto last time and showed little enthusiasm throughout. It’s debatable today’s 6f is what he needs at this stage to be able to get near the front and put himself in with a chance and even with the reapplication of cheekpieces, you’d need to see more before making him a bet.

Owney Madden – Achieved good things as a 2yo, his win at York achieving a Sectional Rating of 83. He managed mid 70s at Chelmsford and York in July but he needs to bounce back from three below par efforts since, including two for new trainer, Jane Chapple-Hyam. He wears a first time hood today and is 11lb better off than last time when including the apprentice jockey’s claim, but like Kondratiev Wave, you’d need to see more before investing.

Diligent Lady – Put in two good performances at Windsor in the Summer, which repeated would put her competitive here. 6f on the All Weather is a different challenge today though and Michael Attwater’s invariably need their first run after a break.

Count Otto – Won a C&D handicap pretty cosily last time, making that six career victories. Despite good form over 7f, all six victories have been over 6f and at courses that have a downhill run, so another appearance at Lingfield is a positive. He’s a horse capable of running to a Sectional Rating of around 80 and looks a strong proposition, but the odds will reflect that.

One Hart – Comfortably won a claimer last time and is now trained by James Ferguson. The ease of the victory and strength of the form was reflected in a 4lb BHA rise to 78, but our Ratings tell us that’s within his compass. He’s dropped to 6f today, a distance he hasn’t performed over since he was a 2yo, but the way he strides and the way he puts his 7f races to bed, you’d think 6f will be fine. He can put up a good fight against Count Otto.

13:11 – Betway Kachy Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (6f1y) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Summerghand – A model of consistency in performances and our Ratings. When on song he hits just below the 100 mark and a repeat of that today would be enough to win. He comes here off the back of a 119 day break and has a 1212 record when returning from a break of two months or more. His Sectional Upgrades prove he has a turn of foot when needed, often required at Lingfield. The only question mark you would have is his form on the All Weather – his last run was on Boxing Day 2019 when he scored 89 when beating Documenting, who showed great form throughout that Winter. A rock solid option.

Aberama Gold – Undoubtedly an improved performer since the Autumn, hitting a 98 when running Dakota Gold close at Doncaster. Come out of that well on the All Weather since, performing best at today’s track. If he runs to his best he can hit mid 90’s, but even that may be just short of what’s needed.

Burmese Waltz – Officially rated the lowest in the field but her All Weather form deserves to put her right in the mix. She was up with Good Effort and Lampang at the front of the field last time in the race of the All Weather season so far, pitched three wide and sticking on well to hit a Sectional Rating of 97. Back in June she hit a Rating of 94 in beating Shimmering Dawn who was BHA rated 91 at the time but has risen to 98 since. There were a couple of below par efforts in between on turf, but on Ascot’s sand based straight track she ran Chiefofchiefs close. Her OR will mean she is going to be a nice each way price on the day and with a good draw and this being only her 11th start, she makes appeal.

Misty Grey – Likely to be favourite and he has come back to his peak 2yo form this Winter. He’s a little hard to assess for this race – his short head victory over Fizzy Feet over 6f would likely fall short of what’s required, where he looked as though 7f would suit. That impression was confirmed when hitting 96 from a slow pace in a strong race that saw next time out winners, Tranchee and Intuitive in behind. Away from Wolverhampton for the first time, there are just enough doubts to his suitably to Lingfield’s quick 6f to leave him at the prices.

Tinto – His best form has come at this course in the Golden Rose Stakes each of the last two years, hitting 90 and 96. Burmese Waltz from this year’s renewal looks a more progressive individual and as respectable as his form is, you do feel he will likely find a few too good in this field.


13:11 – Betway Winter Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) (1m2f) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Bangkok – Winner of this race by four and a half lengths last year. The makeup of that field, which ended up being run from an even pace, will most likely be different to today’s test. Bangkok made the running at Wolverhampton last time and was caught on the line by Felix. There’s no doubt he will enjoy the return to Lingfield and will likely enjoy the presence of Red Verdon, a stayer who will probably make the running and ensure the race isn’t run at an absolute crawl. However, you can’t see it being an even test and you will need a horse who can use a turn of foot down the Lingfield straight. This horse definitely has that, unlucky not to beat Sangarius in December and it’s not too difficult to envisage a return to form today.

Forest Of Dean – Possibly the 3yo handicapper of 2019, winning at Goodwood and York and hitting some good Ratings in the process. There’s no doubting his ability and he made a decent return behind Felix and Bangkok last time, a length behind at the line. An argument will be made that race being his return from 478 days, he may be able to reverse the form today on the back of that. But these slowly run All Weather races are a unique test and we’re not convinced Forest Of Dean possesses the speed at the finish to beat Bangkok and Felix. The Ratings for the race at Wolverhampton were low – Gosden’s gelding hit 79, and you’d think a return to Lingfield will see the front two in the market improve their form as well.

Red Verdon – In our top 10 Ratings (up to 1m4f) courtesy of a fourth behind Telecaster in a race run in heavy ground. His last race was a slowly run 1m2f event at Wolverhampton where he was outpaced in a sprint finish by Make It Rain and Born To Be Alive, and was probably lucky not to finish further back thanks to a couple of fallers. You’d think Red Verdon’s best chance would be to go off in front at an even tempo in the hope there are suspect stayers, but that seems pretty doubtful and this test should be too much for him.

Felix – A curious career under Marco Botti, he’s yet to run in a race that resembles anything like an even tempo, scoring Sectional Upgrades between 10 and 22 on all five starts. That seems to have suited him down to the ground though as he’s won four of those races, including on return last time when beating Bangkok. Bearing in mind Bangkok’s usual preferred running style, it could be argued Felix was convenienced by having Balding’s horse in his sights in the straight, and it’s less likely that will happen today. No doubt a horse with a great turn of foot who was overpriced in his last race, it’s a little harder to make him a bet at 2/1 today.


Advised bet
13:11 – Burmese Waltz, each way at 12/1

Predictions
12:35 – 1st Count Otto, 2nd One Hart
13:11 – 1st Burmese Waltz, 2nd Summerghand, 3rd Aberama Gold
13:45 – 1st Bangkok, 2nd Felix

Categories
Previews

25/1/21

We are previewing two races today where our Ratings can be used with different methods to make betting selections.

5:45 Kempton РUnibet New Instant Roulette Handicap (6f) (Class 6) (3yo 0-60)

Selection – MEHMO @ 11/4

Mehmo’s run last time has him at the top of our Sectional Ratings by a considerable margin and he looks a good price to consider a win bet.

The 5f race he competed in at Lingfield last time looks strong form on its own – Onaledge beating the well backed Stay Smart, both looking like horses to stay on the right side of in the near future. Mehmo made nice headway into fourth, but the early pace wasn’t strong in the contest and the work he did in the final two furlongs was worthy of a large Sectional Upgrade, putting the run onto 67 on today’s Racecard once racing weight has been accounted for. Off a BHA mark of 55 today, he should prove this to be below his capabilities in the near future.

He is stepped up to 6f today which you would suggest is a plus. His second best performance in his career so far came over 7f when trained by Gay Kelleway. Now with Mick Appleby, the 6f on polytrack looks the best option at the moment. You’d also be optimistic he can replicate the same form today as last time, the Sectional Upgrade suggesting he had more to give and shouldn’t have had a hard race. Whilst there looks to have been money for Twilight Madness this morning, there are enough positives to be confident about Mehmo’s chances.


3:40 Chelmsford Рtote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP Handicap (1m) (Class 6) (3yo 0-55)

Selection – PUFFIN ISLAND @ 7/2

Whereas we looked at what Mehmo has already achieved in considering a bet today, here we can look what the Ratings tell us about potential improvement with a runner.

The field for this 1m handicap looks quite weak. Those at the top of our Sectional Ratings have run plenty of times without running a time that would put you off backing a horse you think may be more unexposed. In this instance, we like the look of Puffin Island’s profile.

This filly, trained by Henry Spiller, had a quiet novice campaign, but even then did achieve a decent number at Kempton over 7f in a strong event behind Just Beautiful and Daphne May, BHA rated 85 and 77 respectively. Her handicap debut back down to 6f was promising, running on nicely from rear when a little green early and the jockey not picking up the whip.

Today’s race is over a mile and there are a couple of pedigree pointers to think today’s race will suit. She is a half sister to Victory Chime and Charity Fun who appreciate 1m2f+, and also a half sister to Parknacilla who definitely appreciated a mile at Chelmsford when in form last Winter. Sire, Awtaad has also made a promising start with his runners on the All Weather.

It wouldn’t take an awful lot of improvement for Puffin Island to be involved at the finish and while she doesn’t feature in our top 10 Sectional Ratings for the race, it’s important to consider improvers in these early 3yo handicaps.

Categories
Previews

Boxing Day Preview

Wolverhampton hosts some decent All Weather action this Boxing Day and we are previewing their two Class 2 events. We have sent Sectional Racecards to our Subscribers for four races today – if you want our Racecards sent directly to your email address every day, then browse our Subscription options HERE

15:30 – Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Handicap (7f 36y) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

Misty Grey – The signs were there he may have a productive All Weather season when a running on seventh in a strong handicap at Kempton in August for Mark Johnston (Sectional Rating of 80). Since then he’s won twice for Tom Dascombe, including a career best last time beating All Weather specialist, Fizzy Feet over 6f. Back up to 7f today shouldn’t be a problem and he’s only been upped 4lbs in the handicap. If in the same form you’d expect him capable of running a number in the low 90s and he sets a good standard.
10am odds – 2/1

Tranchee – Has been very consistent for David Loughnane, not finishing outside the first three this season. He’s subsequently BHA rated 19lbs higher than when last seen on the All Weather, but this War Front gelding out of a Galileo mare is capable of running a number that could get him close to winning this sort of event. He’s had a little break since the beginning of November which may have freshened him up and he’s a contender.
10am odds – 9/2

Intuitive – A soon to be 5yo with only 12 career starts, Intuitive still looks to be a little unexposed, especially on the All Weather where he is four wins from eight races. His win at Kempton last Winter is top rated on our Sectional Ratings, travelling strongly and winning decisively against a good yardstick in Kimifive. He went on to disappoint in Dubai but now with Simon Crisford, he made a pleasing comeback last month at Chelmsford. Running in rear and relatively wide round the bend, he ran on to come fourth and achieve a Sectional Rating only 1lb shy of Misty Grey’s win last time. He’s drawn wide today but is happy to sit in behind runners and he could be the horse in the field capable of running in the late 90s if everything falls right. Good each way value in an eight runner field.
10am odds – 5/1

Papa Stour – Comes here off the back of three victories in his last four starts. The first of those wins he was rated BHA rated 75 and he’s now rated 92, so he’s had to be upped in class to a Class 2 handicap here. On our Sectional Ratings, his three wins have achieved 83, 84 and 81 respectively and if the aforementioned horses run to their standards, this could be a step too far for Papa Stour in the handicap. If he improves again and a couple run below par, he would stand a chance.
10am odds – 5/1

Of the others – Similarly to Papa Stour, Amarillo Star, Ghaith and Sir Maximilian have bits and pieces of form that could entitle them to trouble the judges if the main protagonists under perform, but with the dead eight field there is value elsewhere. Ventura Lightning is a bit of a wildcard having clocked a Sectional Rating of 90 back in June in a Group race at Newcastle, but he’s disappointed since not scoring better than 78 and he’s best watched currently.

SELECTION – Intuitive (e/w) at 5/1


16:05 – Betway Conditions Stakes (6f20y) (Class 2) (3yo+)

On the Warpath – The listed event On The Warpath ran in last month is very strong All Weather form. The winner, Good Effort and On The Warpath both hit Sectional Ratings of 105 and that should be enough to feature in the top 10 All Weather Ratings come the end of the season. He’s favoured by the weights in this Conditions event and as long as he doesn’t bounce from that huge effort last time, he sets a very high standard for this contest.
10am odds – 4/5

Above – This 3yo is a talented colt and has probably gone a little under the radar today. His win at today’s track in August of last year was only a three runner race, but he was seriously impressive on the clock, scoring a Sectional Rating of 103. Above may have had a few problems since, and he’s only run twice this year, but he did run well in a listed event at Windsor in June. The return to the All Weather is a plus and the application of cheek pieces may help as well. The negative is the trip – he strides like he would be better over 7f than today’s 6f and his performance at Wolverhampton last year was over 7f.
10am odds – 8/1

Fizzy Feet – Considering her form last season, Fizzy Feet went off a huge 22/1 last time and got headed on the line by Misty Grey. That form and a Sectional Rating of 87 probably wouldn’t be enough today, but we have long held the opinion there is more to come from this horse over 6f on the All Weather. She was progressive last year and clearly thrives from racing. One of her wins at Lingfield scored a good Sectional Rating from a slow early sprint pace, so she has showcased early speed and a good turn of foot. She may well be getting stronger as she gets older and there’s potential for her to win more races this year. If the favourite doesn’t run to his best, she may be there to pick up the pieces.
10am odds – 8/1

Of the others – Lord Of The Lodge and Boosala are relatively hard to analyse as their best form has come on turf nearly 18 months ago. Lord Of The Lodge was a forward 2yo who placed in the Gimcrack at York, who then returned early last season in February to score 90 at Newcastle. They may have been making use of him whilst he was still ahead of developing 3yos and Sectional Ratings of 73 and 71 since, albeit in strong races, aren’t appealing. Boosala is probably best watched on his return from 519 days off as he has a little bit to find on what he has shown so far, both on Sectional and Official Ratings. Tawny Port is a useful 85+ horse on his day but it’s uncertain to be today on these terms.

SELECTION – Fizzy Feet w/o On The Warpath at 10/3